东北区域业务模式预报产品检验评估系统的建立及应用

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2017.04.003

Abstract

Abstract: Verification and evaluation system of operational model forecast products in Northeast China was established,and then the precipitation forecast abilities of the new 3 km version and the old 9 km version of operational models were verified and evaluated.The system runs every day automatically,and precipitation,surface temperature,weather situation field and typhoon forecast products are verified.The verification results are displayed in real time in a textual and graphic form,respectively,through the mesoscale numerical forecasting web pages of Northeast Regional Meteorological Center Local Area Network.Furthermore,the system can compare and evaluate the forecast abilities of different versions of operational models according to typical precipitation cases.The verification and evaluation results show that the new version of operational model obviously improves the forecast abilities for the grade of heavy rain or above.Although the false-alarm rates are higher,winter snowfall and southerly situation are better forecasted by the new version of the model.With the improvements in horizontal resolution and meso-micro scale topographic features,large scale precipitation forecast abilities are enhanced.However,increasing the vertical resolution of the model will create more false numerical point storm on precipitation forecast,leading to higher false-alarm rates.

Key words: Northeast China, Forecast product, Verification, Evaluation

CLC Number:

P456.7

YANG Yang, WANG Lian-zhong, ZHOU Xiao-shan. Establishment and application of the verification and evaluation system of operational model forecast products in Northeast China[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2017, 33(4): 21-28.

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Establishment and application of the verification and evaluation system of operational model forecast products in Northeast China

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